Groups like the Islamic State of Khorasan could oppose the negotiations and try to attract disgruntled Taliban. The insurrection is not a homogeneous organization. These include other insurgent groups, drug trafficking organizations, tribes and militias, some of which may strongly oppose a peace agreement. Even successful peace agreements have been threatened by cheerleaders who refuse to participate and instead remain committed to violence to achieve their goals, such as the Real Irish Republican Army in Northern Ireland and the National Liberation Army in Colombia. Both carried out attacks before, during and after the peace agreements. Several indicators indicate an increased likelihood of eventuality. An aborted peace process could be preceded by the following events: mutual distrust means that the peace process could collapse. The Taliban do not accept Afghanistan`s internationally recognized government as legitimate, dethough it has run in three elections since it came to power after the fall of the Taliban regime by the US invasion in 2001. “Too many Afghans are currently dying,” US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad said in a series of tweets on Thursday, announcing the agreement to have “restored” compliance with the agreement. “With the new hire, we expect that number [of deaths] to decrease significantly.” In a variant of this eventuality, the Afghan government and the Taliban could reach a fragile interim agreement, but one or both sides would not implement part of the agreement. This situation could put the United States in a precarious situation. It should decide whether it should continue to withdraw its armed forces because the parties had reached an agreement or whether it should halt the withdrawal until a solution was found.
I followed the progress of the agreement between the United States and the Taliban in my capacity as Director of the Center for Afghanistan Studies at the University of Nebraska, Omaha. My analysis shows that the implementation of the Trump administration`s agreement is at a standstill. Regardless of the intent or importance of his tweet, Trump`s open desire to bring back U.S. troops could put the Taliban in a stronger negotiating position, given that the militant group`s long-awaited direct peace talks with the Afghan government are ongoing. . . .